Housing market in Poland
A drop in demand in Q1 sales figures is not surprising and should be temporary, given the hopes and concerns surrounding the next subsidised loan programme
A key factor affecting the market in Q1 was the fact that as at the end of December 2023, it was no longer possible to apply for subsidised loans (BK2 loans). Throughout the quarter, however, banks analysed previously submitted applications and granted loans, resulting in a significant number of developer agreements being signed.
Residential sales figures for Q1 2024, which also include paid reservations in JLL’s methodology, were as expected: the end of accepting applications for subsidised loans resulted in a decrease in sales. In total, in the six main markets (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tricity, Poznań and Łódź), developers sold in Q1 11,000 units. The drop compared to the previous quarter was almost 23%.
However, in addition to the end of the BK2 programme, also other reasons contributed to lower sales figures, namely caution on the part of investment buyers, fairly average sales of unsubsidised housing loans, the winter season when sales are always slightly lower, uncertainty on the part of some cash buyers as to the future market situation and a still rather limited offer, with high prices, in several cities.
New supply and offer
For the second consecutive quarter, a relatively high number of units were put up for sale in the first quarter. In total, almost 16,700 new units were offered in the six main markets, 4.7% more than in the previous quarter. This was the second consecutive quarter in which new launches exceeded sales. At the end of March, buyers had around 42,400 units to choose from, 17.2% more than three months earlier. However, the volume of new supply compared to the size of the markets and sales varied widely between cities.
Key Takeaways
- In subsequent quarters, new supply is expected to continue to slightly exceed sales, where supply is still relatively limited.
- When looking at the sales results shown in the statistics, it is important to bear in mind that the total number of loans granted under the BK2 programme is likely to exceed 100,000 and that the last loans will not be granted until Q2 2024.
- Market participants' decisions are currently being influenced by information about the format of the new loan programme, #na Start, and predictions about how other groups of buyers will behave.