Regional office markets in Poland – Q2 2022

After a good start to 2022, leasing activity across key regional office markets continued its strong performance into Q2.

August 10, 2022

In H1 2022, total demand for office space recorded in Poland’s eight major regional cities totalled 343,000 m2 (+28%, y-o-y), with 190,000 m2 being transacted in Q2. Companies are focusing on finalising leasing processes that were postponed during the pandemic and adjusting office space to new requirements.

After a record first quarter, new completions delivered between April and June amounted to 68,300 m2. As a result, in H1 2022 developers completed over 300,000 m2 of office space. Ca. 560,000 m2 was under construction, with the majority of these projects planned for completion by the end of 2024; nevertheless, we do take into account that not all these projects will be delivered on schedule with some investments even being put on hold due to the lack of an anchor tenant, limited access to a workforce and building materials.

At the end of June 2022, the overall vacancy rate for the eight main regional markets stood at 15.2%. Vacancy levels will continue to rise this year due to high levels of new supply; however, its dynamics will remain relatively weak.

In H1 2022, prime assets across the majority of regional markets recorded rental increases of € 0.25-0.50 / m2 /month. In Q2 2022, the highest rates among the main regional markets were registered in Kraków (€ 14-16 / m² / month), Wrocław (€ 14-15.5 / m² / month) and the Tri-City (€ 13.5-15.5 / m² / month).

The office investment market started off 2022 in very good shape, coming off the back of a milestone transaction announced in 2021: The Warsaw HUB (B&C buildings) was purchased by Google from Ghelamco for €582 million. Moreover, the regional cities have attracted investor attention as well, setting a record of investment volume outside Warsaw for a first half of a year. The total office investment volume during H1 exceeded €1.3 billion - a 54% increase on the same period in 2021.

The rising financing and development costs put upward pressure on office yields. However, best-in-class assets remain very attractive investment products, which was observed during the first half of 2022. The prime cap rates in Kraków, which remains the core regional city, currently stand at 5.75%.

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