Research

Residential market in Poland Q3 2022

The total number of units sold in the primary market in six main cities was only 6,600, i.e. was by 30% lower than in the previous quarter.

October 27, 2022

Demand has been adversely affected by a series of earlier interest rate increases and its effects on mortgage loan interest rates. In addition, loan-supported purchases were still limited by the tightening of the rules for calculating creditworthiness. Demand was also hampered by the prospects of rising interest rates, translating into higher mortgage interest rates. Cash buyers, whose decisions may now be increasingly dependent on the expectations of prices in the nearest future, were most prominent in the market.

A lack of transparency in the available offer

A large number of new units launched for sale between April and June resulted in reduced market transparency. Some of the projects initiated at the end of Q2 only in order to ensure that they could be sold under the rules binding previously, were suspended during the last three months. However, a record-high number of units withdrawn from sales (about 4,000 units) has proved insufficient to maintain the market equilibrium level. Projections regarding the scale of sales suspension indicated that these numbers in Q3 should be even higher. Regardless of the projects that were offered for sale at the end of Q2, developers introduced additionally more than 7,200 units in six major markets in the last quarter. In consequence, the size of the offer at the end of September was 51,400 units, and the relationship between the demand and supply clearly deteriorated. 

Despite the statistical increase in the prices of units sold in Q3, new promotional offers and discounts can be noticed in the market. This may be reflected in the pricing policy in future quarters.

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