Research

Residential market in Poland Q4 2022

In the six main markets, developers sold 29% more apartments than in the previous quarter.

February 06, 2023

However, the annual result of the sales of residential units in the six major markets was similar to that of 2013, i.e. the period preceding the housing boom. Such low results are a consequence of a series of events, from another wave of the pandemic at the beginning of the year, through the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the influx of refugees, to the acceleration of inflation, accompanied by an increase in interest rates, which caused a clear decline in the creditworthiness in Poland. The mortgage market crisis has reminded us that the lack of new loans is holding back sales on the primary market not only directly, but also through the secondary market, due to a certain number of potential buyers making the purchase conditional on the sale of their current units.

New supply and offer

The introduction of new regulations in the middle of the year made it difficult to estimate the actual number of units available for sale. A few months later, withheld projects disappeared from the offer, which contributed to a decrease in the number of units remaining for sale to fewer than 49,000. In some markets, however, the number of available units was still at a record high at the end of December (with demand being visibly weak). Such a comparison between demand and supply indicates that there is a surplus of available units in these markets and the current pace of the offer’s sale is approaching the level of 7-8 quarters.

In terms of prices, Q4 2022 was rich in promotions and discounts from developers, which resulted in a slight correction of the prices of sold units. Meanwhile, the prices of units remaining on offer continued to noticeably increase, due to, among other things, the placement of very expensive investments on the market.

Key Takeaways

1. Such a powerful blow to the mortgage market resulted in cash buyers becoming the most active market participants in the second half of 2022

2. Q4 2022 has brought the growth in the number of sold units. In 2022 in the six main markets developers sold almost 35,000 units

3.  The period between October and December 2022 was another quarter in a row with a low level of new supply, this time amounting to around 6,800 units

 

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