Housing market in Poland
The information chaos surrounding the new housing programme was reflected in the sales figures. The Q2 results, which include paid reservations in JLL’s methodology, were lower than in the first three months of 2024
In Q2, developers sold a total of 9,800 units in the six main markets (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tri-City, Poznań and Łódź). The decrease compared to the previous quarter was almost 11%. Compared to Q1, however, the decline in sales varied considerably from city to city. The largest falls were recorded in Kraków (-27%) and Warsaw (-19%). In Poznań and Łódź, the decline in sales was slightly lower - 10% and 7% respectively compared to the previous quarter. Only in the Tri-City was the number of units sold at a similar level to the previous Q1 (a decrease of only 2%), while in Wrocław an increase was recorded, but the sales figures were similar to those of Q1 and Q2 2022, which were already rather low.
H1 2024 was not only significantly worse in terms of sales than the second half of 2023 (when the BK2 programme was in operation) but also worse than the first half of 2023 (when the announcement of the programme had already triggered an increase in purchases and reservations). Between January and June 2024, developers sold almost 21,000 units in the largest markets. This result is similar to the first half of 2022. At that time, interest rates were even higher than now, and there was a higher regulatory buffer when assessing creditworthiness. Buyers have been cautious in recent months, taking more time to make purchasing decisions.
New supply and offer
For the third consecutive quarter, a relatively large number of units were put up for sale in Q2. A total of almost 15,300 new units were offered in the six main markets, 8.5% less than in the previous quarter. The number of new launches continued to outstrip sales, increasing the number of flats available for purchase by more than 14% at the end of June, with buyers able to choose from a pool of around 48,400 units.
Key Takeaways
· The confusion caused by the postponement of the decision on the new loan subsidy programme led some potential buyers to postpone their decisions.
· When looking at the sales results shown in the statistics, it is important to bear in mind that the total number of loans granted under the BK2 programme is likely to exceed 100,000 and that the last loans will not be granted until Q2 2024.
· Market participants' decisions are currently being influenced by information about the format of the new loan programme, #na Start, and predictions about how other groups of buyers will behave.