Residential market in Poland 

The beginning of 2023 brought a huge change in the primary housing market. First, the mere announcement and then the quick adoption of the new act introducing the new housing program was enough for sales to return to the level from the second half of 2021. And all this with interest rates still at record highs in recent years, high inflation and war on our eastern border.

Fears of a possible increase in prices and a reduction in the offer had the strongest impact on the market. Buyers looking for units both for their own needs and for investment purposes have therefore accelerated their purchasing decisions. Cash buyers continued to be the majority of buyers, but both the number and share of buyers using credit increased significantly. Although the developers claim that there were few transactions related to the “2% loan” plan, the growing number of reservations confirmed that interest in the program is very high.

New supply and offer

After three quarters of stagnation, new supply finally picked up. More than 10,000 units were put on sale, nearly 50% more than in the previous quarter. The largest increase compared to the previous quarter was in the Tri-City, by 127%, and the smallest - in Poznań - by 6%, but there is an upward trend everywhere.

Despite this, in all cities except Łódź, sales clearly exceeded the new supply and, as a result, the offer decreased. If developers do not increase new supply quickly, they will have to artificially limit sales, and the imbalance will result in a rapid increase in prices.

Key Takeaways

• We are in a situation known from previous crises when banks - this time additionally encouraged by the "2% loans" program - first stimulate demand while limiting new supply.
• Very good sales and insufficient supply mean that the markets are entering a phase of clear excess demand.
• The imbalance in demand and supply may therefore cause another significant increase in housing prices in the coming months.