Retail Market in Poland - Q4 2022

Still healthy market fundamentals and the gap to narrow with Western European countries augurs well for the retail real estate market in Poland.

March 06, 2023

Although the first few months of 2023 may see a continuation of 2022’s challenging market conditions, short and mid-term economic headwinds are anticipated to ease as the year progresses. Whereas the eurozone and Poland are likely to face negative GDP dynamics in 2023, Poland is anticipated to rebound with an aggregated 9.1% increase between 2023 and 2026, compared to 5.9% for the Eurozone in the same period (Oxford Economics).

Total completions for the year summed up to almost 500,000 m², well-above the 5-year average across all retail formats.

As has been the case for the previous three years, retail parks was the most popular segment. In 2022, total new space delivered in the retail park format was close to 260,000 m², accounting for 52% of the retail sector’s overall result.

New retail parks were opened in towns, small cities and the largest agglomerations across Poland. Indeed, 2022 saw small cities under 50,000 inhabitants in the spotlight of developers, with 112,000 m² being delivered within 17 projects. Meanwhile, major agglomerations were responsible for some 80,000 m² of new retail park stock, including two ATUT projects, each of above 20,000 m², both located in Kraków.

The shopping centre segment in 2022 saw four extensions and one new development - Karuzela shopping centre (30,000 m² GLA) opened in Kołobrzeg, a city below 50,000 inhabitants, filling the existing gap on the map of the modern retail provision.

The market continues to grow year–on-year despite strong trade headwinds and the black swan events that have appeared in the last few years. Yet, every crisis generates new opportunities, which are very likely to be beneficial in the most dynamic markets. So those market players who can meet the challenges, identify and take the opportunity will benefit and outperform their competitors.

The 2022 investment volume of circa €1.4 billion was a significant (+41%) increase over 2021’s €993 million and nearly double of the volume in 2020. Most importantly the total number of transactions in 2022 was third highest in the history, encompassing impressive 77 retail assets in 43 deals.

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