Research

Warsaw office market perspectives – Q2 2022

The office market has seen a significant upturn in recent months: decline in vacancy rates, decreasing number of sublease offers and record high demand for offices.

August 10, 2022
Contributors:
  • Mateusz Polkowski
  • Hanna Dąbrowska
  • Tomasz Czuba

The tenant activity recorded in H1 2022, which amounted to as much as 479,400 m², was the highest half-yearly result ever for the Warsaw market. The previous period in which volume was at such a level (around 474,000 m²) was H2 2019. The current result shows that the capital's office market is recovering after two years of continuous uncertainty. Continuing the trend of Q1 this year, space leased by companies in the banking and finance sector accounted for the largest share of take-up (31%).

In H1 2022, eight office buildings with a total area of 129,000 m² were delivered to the capital's market, and had occupancy levels of over 85%. The largest new developments included Forest Tower (51,500 m², HB Reavis) and SkySAWA (31,300 m², PHN).

After several years of steadily increasing developer activity, which typically saw between 700,000 m² and 800,000 m² under construction, the market now has only 260,000 m² under construction, the lowest figure since 2010. There are several reasons for this – developers adopting a more cautious approach, a lack of land, competition for plots in the PRS sector, administrative issues and increased implementation costs. As a result, a shortfall in new supply is forecast for 2023.

In H1 2022, the highest transaction rents for prime office properties recorded a slight increase and was particularly evident in the city centre. At the end of June this year, these rents ranged from € 18 to € 25.5/m²/month in the city centre to nearly € 17/m²/month outside the area and remain on an upward trend.

At the end of June 2022, the vacancy rate stood at 11.9% (11.6% in the central zones and 12.2% outside the centre), a decrease of 0.6 p.p. y-o-y and 0.3 p.p. on the previous quarter, respectively.

The total office investment volume in Poland during H1 2022 exceeded €1.3 billion - a 54% increase on the same period in 2021. Transactions concluded in Warsaw accounted for 51% of the turnover. As of the end of H1, the yield for prime Warsaw assets, with five-year lease agreements, was expected at approx. 4.75%.

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